BTC dom 56.6%, ETH/BTC +0.9% over 7d
Altseason Scenario Model
Are the conditions in place for an altcoin season?
The index does not predict the future blindly. It measures observable conditions for altcoin rotation: technical rotation, macro liquidity, top 300 breadth, catalysts, stablecoin fuel and geopolitical risk.
July 202625%Cautious accumulation
Scenario score based on partial inputs. It is not a live probability.
Monthly projection
Altseason scenario score
Partial-data model
Some inputs are estimated or unavailable. The result is a scenario score, not a live probability.
- MarketLive
- FedManual
- GeoLive
Manual input
38% of the top 300 rising over 7d
Risk-off geopolitics (88/100 risk)
25%July
Current scenario score
Cautious accumulation
Composite score after technical, macro and risk guardrails.12-month path25% → 35%
Line = base case, band = uncertaintyMacro conditions22/100Open the macro dashboardCatalysts tracked24 upcoming events over 90 daysOpen event calendar
Weighted factor mapWhat drives the index
Scenario simulator25%
Click possible conditions to see how the index could react.
Current
July 2026 - 25% scenario score
Window plus favorable si la Fed devient moins hawkish. Le risk geopolitics limite la window risk-on.
25%Still fragile
Fed cut0%Manual inputGeo risk88/100Polymarket live
Conservative range14-36%
The range widens with time: the farther the horizon, the more the projection depends on macro conditions and future technical breakouts.
BTC dominance 56.6%, ETH/BTC +0.9% versus BTC over 7d. Unfavorable signal. 30-day dominance slope +0.00 pts, dominance RSI 50/100, 20-day average distance +0.00 pts. Technical signal still building: monitor BTC dominance, ETH/BTC and TOTAL3.
BTC dominance · ETH/BTC · TOTAL3No Fed/FOMC market has a deadline matching this month exactly. A neutral reference is used instead of a live forecast.
Manual variableMiddle East: 93% - Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o... (+32 pts risk-off)
Polymarket liveAverage altcoin change +1.6% over 7d versus BTC +0.1%. A real altseason requires broad participation, not a few isolated leaders.
CoinGecko top 300 filteredStablecoin liquidity helps only when it supports TOTAL3, ETH/BTC and top 300 breadth. Otherwise, it may simply be defensive cash.
Stablecoins + confirmation risk-onUseful for the current month only. It is not used as a reliable forecast for future months.
Fear & Greed instantaneWhat would lift the score
BTC dominance breaks support and stays below its short-term averageETH/BTC returns to a positive trend with volumeTOTAL3/BTC confirms a bullish breakoutMore than 55% of the top 300 by market cap outperforms BTC over 7 daysFed rate-cut probability above 55% on Polymarket/CMEGeopolitical risk declines or markets price in de-escalation
Geopolitical risk
Current pressure vs prediction-market probabilities
0788Now0866M+10923M+21021M+31118M+41218M+50123M+60223M+70324M+80425M+90526M+100627M+11
Risk-off heat map
88/100Geopolitical risk-off
LowMediumHigh
The hotter the score, the more the model penalizes altseason odds because markets may prefer dollars, bonds or cash.
Current month: facts to monitor
Editorial claims are not used as live data.
Next months: separate prediction markets
Several cards can mention the same region because each Polymarket question has a different trigger, deadline and market-implied probability.
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Potential impact 88/100Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
Potential impact 88/100Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
Potential impact 88/100Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Potential impact 82/100Score calculated from public Polymarket markets tied to Ukraine, Taiwan, Middle East and energy risks. Crypto/IPO/sports questions and irrelevant multi-choice markets are filtered out.
Factors for July
Weighted scoreTechnical rotation BTC / ETH / TOTAL3BTC dom 56.6%, ETH/BTC +0.9% over 7d
33.601092131241785/100
UnfavorableThis is the core of the index: BTC dominance, ETH/BTC momentum and a TOTAL3/BTC proxy. The model does not assume BTC dominance will fall; it waits for technical breakouts.
BTC dominance technique: 20/100Pente dominance 30j: +0.00 ptsRSI dominance 14j: 50/100Technical signal still building: monitor BTC dominance, ETH/BTC and TOTAL3.20-day average distance: +0.00 ptsETH/BTC momentum: 54/100TOTAL3/BTC proxy: 45/100
Top 300 market cap crypto38% of the top 300 rising over 7d
27.4400977689306/100
UnfavorableThis measures how many top 300 crypto assets by market cap are actually rising. A credible altseason needs broad participation, not just a few isolated leaders.
Coins analyses: 299 of the top 300 excluding ETHTop 300 rising: 38%Average altcoin change over 7d: +1.6%BTC 7d: +0.1%
Macro rates / dollar / liquidityFed cut 0% - Manual input
22.414801306074107/100
UnfavorableThe model uses rate-cut probabilities, the dollar and yields. When Polymarket provides relevant Fed/FOMC markets, the 12-month projection adjusts month by month.
FED_CUT_PROBABILITY fournit un scenario manuel, clairement separate du liveDXY_RISK_SCORE penalizes the score when the dollar is strongUS10Y_RISK_SCORE penalizes the score when US yields riseCurrent rate source: manual
Geopolitical riskGeo risk 88/100 - Polymarket live
31.7/100
UnfavorableThe higher war/escalation risk rises, the more the index penalizes altseason odds. The model now separates sudden shocks from conflicts already priced in: a local city-capture market weighs less than Taiwan, Hormuz, nuclear or oil risk.
Middle East: 93% - risk-off - impact 88/100Middle East: 64% - risk-off - impact 88/100Middle East: 56% - risk-off - impact 88/100
Stablecoin liquidity12.6% of the market
80.08032763937254/100
FavorableStablecoins are the cash available inside crypto. The signal becomes bullish only if that liquidity comes with rising TOTAL3 and falling BTC dominance.
Stablecoins en rise + TOTAL3 en rise = carburant risk-onStablecoins en rise + market en cut = fuite defensive vers cash
Crypto catalysts24 upcoming events over 90 days
45.738/100
NeutralListings, ETFs, upgrades, narratives and unlocks can accelerate an already-building rotation, but they do not replace the technical/macro signal.
Current weight 7%: useful, but never dominant on its ownCatalyseur fort = accelerateur si volume, top 300 et ETH/BTC confirmentUnlock bearish important = penalty car pression vendeuse possible
Fear & Greed sentiment28 - Fear
34/100
UnfavorableSentiment is useful for reading the current market state, but it has little weight in projections because it is not very predictable month by month.
InstantaneLow weightWatch for extreme greed