Altseason Scenario Model

Are the conditions in place for an altcoin season?

The index does not predict the future blindly. It measures observable conditions for altcoin rotation: technical rotation, macro liquidity, top 300 breadth, catalysts, stablecoin fuel and geopolitical risk.

BTC dominanceETH/BTCTOTAL3Fed / DXYGeopolitics

September 202637%Cautious accumulation

Scenario score based on partial inputs. It is not a live probability.

Monthly projection

Altseason scenario score

Click a month

Partial-data model

Some inputs are estimated or unavailable. The result is a scenario score, not a live probability.

MarketLive
FedManual
GeoLive

Technical rotation52/100

BTC dom 59.0%, ETH/BTC +2.0% over 7d

Fed cut odds0%

Manual input

Top 300 breadth86/100

79% of the top 300 rising over 7d

Geo pressure54/100

Risk eleve (52/100 risk)

37%September

Current scenario score

Cautious accumulation

Composite score after technical, macro and risk guardrails.

12-month path37% → 39%

Line = base case, band = uncertainty

Macro conditions20/100Open the macro dashboard Catalysts tracked8 upcoming events over 90 daysOpen event calendar

Weighted factor mapWhat drives the index

Scenario simulator37%

Click possible conditions to see how the index could react.

Current

September 2026 - 37% scenario score

Possible acceleration si cut de dominance BTC. La macro reste trop restrictive pour une vraie rotation large.

37%Building

Fed cut0%Manual inputGeo risk54/100Polymarket live

Conservative range26-48%

The range widens with time: the farther the horizon, the more the projection depends on macro conditions and future technical breakouts.

TechniqueRotation 52/100

BTC dominance 59.0%, ETH/BTC +2.0% vs BTC over 7d. Signal neutre. 30-day dominance slope +0.00 pts, dominance RSI 50/100, 20-day average distance +0.00 pts. Technical signal still building: monitor BTC dominance, ETH/BTC and TOTAL3.

BTC dominance · ETH/BTC · TOTAL3

Fed / liquidity0% rate-cut probability

No Fed/FOMC market has a deadline matching this month exactly. A neutral reference is used instead of a live forecast.

Manual variable

Geopolitical risk54/100 risk-off

Middle East: 52% - 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? (+18 pts risk-off)

Polymarket live

Top 300 market cap79% en rise

Average altcoin change +19.3% over 7d versus BTC +3.5%. A real altseason requires broad participation, not a few isolated leaders.

CoinGecko top 300 filtered

Carburant cryptoStablecoins 97/100

Stablecoin liquidity helps only when it supports TOTAL3, ETH/BTC and top 300 breadth. Otherwise, it may simply be defensive cash.

Stablecoins + confirmation risk-on

Sentiment66 - Greed

Useful for the current month only. It is not used as a reliable forecast for future months.

Fear & Greed instantane

What would lift the score

BTC dominance breaks support and stays below its short-term averageETH/BTC returns to a positive trend with volumeTOTAL3/BTC confirms a bullish breakoutMore than 55% of the top 300 by market cap outperforms BTC over 7 daysFed rate-cut probability above 55% on Polymarket/CMEGeopolitical risk declines or markets price in de-escalation

Geopolitical risk

Current pressure vs prediction-market probabilities

Filtered Polymarket

0954Now1022M+11120M+21220M+30125M+40223M+50323M+60423M+70523M+80623M+90723M+100823M+11

Risk-off heat map

52/100Risk eleve

LowMediumHigh

The hotter the score, the more the model penalizes altseason odds because markets may prefer dollars, bonds or cash.

Current month: facts to monitor

No verified current event

Editorial claims are not used as live data.

Next months: separate prediction markets

Several cards can mention the same region because each Polymarket question has a different trigger, deadline and market-implied probability.

Middle EastRisk-off83%

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Potential impact 88/100

Middle EastRisk-off52%

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?

Potential impact 88/100

Middle EastRisk-off34%

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?

Potential impact 88/100

UkraineRisk-on75%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Potential impact 82/100

Score calculated from public Polymarket markets tied to Ukraine, Taiwan, Middle East and energy risks. Crypto/IPO/sports questions and irrelevant multi-choice markets are filtered out.

Factors for September

Weighted score

Technical rotation BTC / ETH / TOTAL3BTC dom 59.0%, ETH/BTC +2.0% over 7d

49.625/100

Neutral

Projectable

Base 52/100Weight 40%

This is the core of the index: BTC dominance, ETH/BTC momentum and a TOTAL3/BTC proxy. The model does not assume BTC dominance will fall; it waits for technical breakouts.

BTC dominance technique: 20/100Pente dominance 30j: +0.00 ptsRSI dominance 14j: 50/100Technical signal still building: monitor BTC dominance, ETH/BTC and TOTAL3.20-day average distance: +0.00 ptsETH/BTC momentum: 59/100TOTAL3/BTC proxy: 100/100

Top 300 market cap crypto79% of the top 300 rising over 7d

76/100

Favorable

Projectable

Base 86/100Weight 14%

This measures how many top 300 crypto assets by market cap are actually rising. A credible altseason needs broad participation, not just a few isolated leaders.

Coins analyses: 299 of the top 300 excluding ETHTop 300 rising: 79%Average altcoin change over 7d: +19.3%BTC 7d: +3.5%

Macro rates / dollar / liquidityFed cut 0% - Manual input

20/100

Unfavorable

Projectable

Base 20/100Weight 30%

The model uses rate-cut probabilities, the dollar and yields. When Polymarket provides relevant Fed/FOMC markets, the 12-month projection adjusts month by month.

FED_CUT_PROBABILITY fournit un scenario manuel, clairement separate du liveDXY_RISK_SCORE penalizes the score when the dollar is strongUS10Y_RISK_SCORE penalizes the score when US yields riseCurrent rate source: manual

Geopolitical riskGeo risk 54/100 - Polymarket live

48.7/100

Neutral

Penalty

Base 50/100Weight 5%

The higher war/escalation risk rises, the more the index penalizes altseason odds. The model now separates sudden shocks from conflicts already priced in: a local city-capture market weighs less than Taiwan, Hormuz, nuclear or oil risk.

Middle East: 83% - risk-off - impact 88/100Middle East: 52% - risk-off - impact 88/100Middle East: 34% - risk-off - impact 88/100

Stablecoin liquidity10.8% of the market

83.11908241775048/100

Favorable

Projectable

Base 97/100Weight 5%

Stablecoins are the cash available inside crypto. The signal becomes bullish only if that liquidity comes with rising TOTAL3 and falling BTC dominance.

Stablecoins en rise + TOTAL3 en rise = carburant risk-onStablecoins en rise + market en cut = fuite defensive vers cash

Crypto catalysts8 upcoming events over 90 days

53.724000000000004/100

Neutral

Projectable

Base 44/100Weight 7%

Listings, ETFs, upgrades, narratives and unlocks can accelerate an already-building rotation, but they do not replace the technical/macro signal.

Current weight 7%: useful, but never dominant on its ownCatalyseur fort = accelerateur si volume, top 300 et ETH/BTC confirmentUnlock bearish important = penalty car pression vendeuse possible

Fear & Greed sentiment66 - Greed

64/100

Favorable

Instant

Base 64/100Weight 0%

Sentiment is useful for reading the current market state, but it has little weight in projections because it is not very predictable month by month.

InstantaneLow weightWatch for extreme greed

Method

Formula: weighted average of observable factors, then a penalty and structural cap when key conditions do not confirm.

Technical: BTC dominance, ETH/BTC and a TOTAL3 proxy are the core of the model. BTC dominance uses level, 30/90-day slope, distance from the 20-day average and 14-day RSI.

Macro: Polymarket Fed/FOMC markets are normalized into real cut probability. A 'no rate cut' market is inverted and penalizes the score.

Geopolitics: Ukraine, Taiwan, Middle East and energy markets are converted into monthly risk, but a local event already priced in weighs less than a sudden global shock.

Top 300: the model measures market breadth. A few strong coins are not enough if most of the top 300 remains weak.

Liquidity: stablecoins count as fuel only with risk-on confirmation; otherwise they can simply be defensive cash.

Catalysts: the calendar now weighs more than before, but only as an accelerator of a rotation confirmed by technicals, macro and breadth.

Projection: each month is conditional. Fed and geopolitical factors move with Polymarket; the path is smoothed to avoid artificial model jumps.

Uncertainty band: the farther the horizon, the wider the probability range.

Current formulaIndex = sum(factor score x weight) - macro/technical guardrails

Raw score 49/100 - penalty 12 pts - structural cap 40/100 - current band +/-11 pts.

Dynamic weights

Technical rotation

BTC dominance, ETH/BTC et TOTAL3 doivent confirmer avant de parler d'altseason.

40%

Macro / liquidity

Rates, the dollar, yields and global volume determine whether the market accepts risk.

30%

Top 300 market cap

A real altseason requires broad participation, not just five narrative tokens.

14%

Geopolitical risk

A sudden shock can invalidate crypto signals; a risk already priced in carries less weight.

Stablecoin liquidity

Carburant potentiel, bullish seulement si TOTAL3 et ETH/BTC confirment.

Crypto catalysts

The calendar can accelerate a rotation when technical and macro signals confirm.

Sentiment

Useful real-time signal, with a low forecast weight because it is difficult to predict.

Historical reference points

Cycle 2020-2021Dominance BTC en cut + ETH/BTC fort + TOTAL3 en rupture

Broad rotation was confirmed when several altcoin groups outperformed BTC at the same time.

The model should wait for top 300 breadth and must not validate an altseason from a single narrative.

Cycle 2024Strong BTC ETF demand, but BTC dominance remains elevated

Much of the capital remained concentrated in BTC and a few leaders; small caps were more uneven.

A crypto rally is not automatically an altseason. BTC dominance remains a major factor.

2025-2026 regimeRestrictive macro conditions, sensitive DXY/yields and geopolitical risks

Altcoin rallies can occur, but they remain more fragile without macro easing.

The score should remain conservative until macro conditions and technical rotation confirm.

Scenarios

UnlikelyBearish scenario

BTC dominance rises, ETH/BTC stays weak, the Fed remains hawkish, US dollar/yields rise and geopolitical risk increases.

Preferred scenarioNeutral scenario

BTC moves sideways, the Fed pauses and some altcoin narratives move, but top 300 market breadth remains weak.

Moderately likelyAltseason scenario

BTC dominance breaks lower, ETH/BTC recovers, TOTAL3 outperforms, the Fed turns dovish and geopolitical risk falls.